European Union Oil Import Dependency Risk Analysis

Abstract

In a world with growing energy demand and increasing energy scarcity, the need for new methods of risk analysis of energy supplies has been emphasized. These methods became even more important for specific energy resources whose future usage is quite questionable, such as oil. This paper will try to examine potential use of one such method for measuring energy security of countries and its dependency on external sources. One method used is failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA), widely used in risk analysis and an inductive modelling approach used to evaluate potential failure modes and their causes. The main goal of FMEA is to prioritize potential risks and lead to actions that will eliminate or reduce the likelihood or effects of their occurrence. Risk evaluation and priority risk numbers were assessed based on expert opinion, using specially created scales developed for the monitored problem. In this paper we try to implement FMEA as a method for quantifying risk of oil shortage for European Union countries and their ability to respond to their growing oil demand and dependency. As a result of this study, ranking these countries by the level of risk they are exposed to will be presented, as well as analysis of the reasons underpinning such rankings.