Predviđanje bankrotstva hotelskih preduzeća u Republici Srbiji primenom Altmanovog Z-score modela

Abstract

Praćenje finansijskog zdravlja preduzeća radi sprečavanja nastupanje bankrotstva, nije samo predmet interesovanja vlasnika, menadžmenta i kreditora kako se nekad mislilo, već je predmet interesovanja i šire društvene zajednice zbog posledica koje bankrotstvo može da izazove. Postoje brojni modeli za predviđanje nastanka bankrotstva preduzeća, ali jedan od najčešće korišćenih jeste Altmanov Z-score model. Vremenom je model modifikovan, tako da od početnog oblika koji je bio namanjen isključivo za proizvodna preduzeća, danas imamo model koji se može primenjivati kako za proizvodna, tako i za uslužna javna i privatna preduzeća, kao i za preduzeća koja posluju na tržištima u razvoju. U radu je korišćen Altmanov Z-score model za preduzeća koja posluju na tržištima u razvoju kako bi se ocenilo finansijsko zdravlje, odnosno mogućnost nastanka bankrotstva kod uzorka od 7 hotelskih preduzeća čije akcije su kotirane na Beogradskoj berzi.

Monitoring the financial health of a company to prevent bankruptcy is not only a matter of interest to owners, management and creditors as previously thought, but also a subject of interest to the wider community due to the consequences that bankruptcy may cause. There are numerous models for predicting bankruptcy, but one of the most commonly used is Altman's Z-score model. Over time, the model has been modified so that from its initial form that was intended solely for one enterprise model, today we have a model that can be applied to manufacturing, service, public and private enterprises, as well as to businesses operating in developing markets. The paper uses Altman's Z-score model for companies operating in developing markets to assess the financial health, that is, the possibility of bankruptcy in a sample of 7 hotel companies listed on the Belgrade Stock Exchange.