Preference Based Portfolio for Private Investors: Discrete Choice Analysis Approach

Abstract

Behavioral finance literature shows that in addition to Markowitz's rate of return and risk, private investors consider various other stock features. This paper discusses the problem of determining investors' preferences for portfolio selection criteria, as well as the problem of optimal portfolio determination from the investors' point of view. The study primarily focuses on private investors who are interested in one-time investments rather than stock trading. We use a discrete choice analysis and hierarchical Bayes method to measure individual investors' preferences, and a logit model to determine individual shares of preferences. We treat the share of preferences as the share of certain stocks in an optimal portfolio. The proposed methodology is illustrated by the example of companies whose stocks are traded on the Belgrade Stock Exchange. We measure respondents' preferences for companies, preferences for return rates, riskiness of stocks, and dividend rates. The results of comparing the performance of the resulting portfolio with the efficient frontier obtained using Markowitz's portfolio theory indicate its high efficiency, thus validating the proposed approach.