Analysis and Projections of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Emissions in the US, EU, and China: a Comparative Study

Abstract

Considering the significant effects of carbon-dioxide (CO2) emissions on the environment, analysis of historical emission levels and prediction of future levels are of huge importance in managing climate change. This study focuses on predicting CO2 emissions in the United States (US), European Union (EU), and China based on the data collected from the World Bank's database. The time series were modelled using the ARIMA methodology, while the analysis was conducted in R. The findings indicate that by 2030, the EU is projected to experience a decline of 23.70% in emissions compared to 2019 levels, while the United States is expected to witness a decrease of 21.95%. However, China's projections are discouraging, with an anticipated increase of 26.83% in emissions. These projections serve as valuable tools to assess the achievement of imposed CO2 emission targets in specific economies, informing the necessary adjustments to existing policies or the implementation of new ones. This study underscores the significance of analysing historical data and forecasting future CO2 emissions to manage climate change and develop energy-related policies effectively.