Bridging the Gap: A Novel Approach to Flood Risk Assessment for Resilience

Abstract

Flood disasters are growing more common and severe as a result of global warming and climate change. These factors intensify weather extremes, resulting in more unpredictable and disastrous floods around the world. Effective flood risk assessment is critical for reducing the socioeconomic and environmental consequences of catastrophic events. This work proposes a novel technique for flood risk assessment that combines Event Tree Analysis with Dempster–Shafer evidence theory and an optimization approach. The methodology assesses flood scenarios, as well as probabilities and outcomes, to predict risk pathways and uncertainties. Prevention measures, such as flood defenses, early warning systems, and sustainable land use practices, are evaluated for cost-effectiveness and their contribution to flood resilience. The findings emphasize the relevance of multi-layered mitigation techniques for lowering flood risks and increasing community resilience. The model presented in this paper is modular, and since it depends on expert judgement, it can be used in other geographical or regional settings with adjustments from local data and local expert assessments.