M. (2025). Efficiency of Elementary Schools in Belgrade: A DEA and SHAP Analysis

Abstract

This study investigates the efficiency of elementary schools in the Belgrade region in preparing students for middle school admission, highlighting the critical role of socio-economic factors. Using a modified output-oriented Data Envelopment Analysis model with municipality score constraints, we assess school performance by comparing grade point averages and student numbers (inputs) to standardized test scores (outputs). Our findings reveal stark differences in efficiency across municipalities, with the highest-performing areas, such as Stari Grad, Voždovac, and Zemun, benefiting from dynamic economies and diverse opportunities. In contrast, outer-circle municipalities like Sopot, Mladenovac, and Obrenovac face challenges tied to limited economic prospects. Leveraging Shapley Additive Explanations analysis, we uncover that unemployment is the most influential factor, with municipalities with lower unemployment achieving significantly lower efficiency scores. These findings not only demonstrate the interconnectedness of socio-economic conditions and education but also emphasize the need for targeted interventions to bridge performance gaps. By addressing unemployment and fostering economic growth, particularly in disadvantaged areas, we believe that policymakers can create a more equitable educational landscape.