Primena fuzzy PERT metode u projektnom planiranju

Abstract

U procesu projektnog planiranja neophodno je da projektni menadžer pažljivo procenjuje vrednosti ulaznih elemenata procesa, koje su često opterećene neizvesnošću. Kako se radi o projektu koji se realizuje u budućnosti, nisu uvek unapred poznati svi uslovi pod kojima će se aktivnosti obavljati. Zbog toga neke vrednosti, kao što je vreme trajanja aktivnosti, količina potrebnih resursa, itd, ne mogu biti precizno određene u fazi planiranja. U vezi sa tim, postoji potreba da se pronađe adekvatan način za tretiranje te neizvesnosti i uspešno projektno planiranje. U radu se prezentuju karakteristike i osnovni elementi uključivanja fuzzy sistema u primenu PERT metode za analizu vremena projekta. U numeričkom primeru koji je deo ovog rada prezentuje se primena koncepta fuzzy brojeva u analizi vremena trajanja projekta. Primena se zasniva na pretvaranju procenjenih trajanja aktivnosti u trapezoidne fuzzy brojeve, posle čega se primenjuju pravila fuzzy aritmetike i određuju vremenske rezerve i kritičan put projekta. U osnovi mnogih menadžerskih odluka danas stoji primena fuzzy sistema, a izvesno je da uključivanje fuzzy logike u projektno planiranje može pomoći menadžerima da donose kvalitetnije odluke i planove.

In the process of project planning, it is necessary that the project manager should carefully assess the values of the input elements of the process, which are often laden with uncertainty. Since this is a project to be executed in the future, currently not all conditions are known in advance under which the activities will take place. This why certain values, such as the duration of an activity, the quantity of necessary resources etc, cannot be accurately determined in the planning stage. That said, there is a need to find the adequate way to deal with that uncertainty and successful project planning. The paper presents features and the basic elements of including the fuzzy system in the application of the PERT method in order to analyze the duration of the project. The numeric example which is a part of this paper features the application of the fuzzy numbers concept in the project duration analysis. The application is based on turning the estimated duration of the activity into trapezoidal fuzzy numbers, after which the rules of the fuzzy arithmetic's are applied, and the temporal reserves and the critical project path are determined. The application of the fuzzy system underlies numerous managerial decisions. Furthermore, it is certain that the incorporation of the fuzzy logic into project planning may help managers bring better decisions and make better plans.